1.TOPIC

Decadal Climate Variability, Predictability, and Worldwide Societal Impacts

2.ABSTRACT

Natural decadal climate variability (DCV) at 10 to 20 years periods – with consequent effects on worldwide atmospheric circulations and water vapor transport, temperature, and precipitation - makes substantial impacts on worldwide water (dryness/wetness, quantity and quality) and food (field and tree crops, fish and crustacean, livestock meat) securities (Mehta, 2017).  Local to national insecurities in these essential requirements for human life can act as catalysts of conflicts within and among countries.  Ocean-atmosphere interactions play a major role in generating and sustaining DCV.  There are experimental but organized actions now for predicting worldwide climate at decadal lead times by World Climate Research Program’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects 5 and 6, and Near-Term Climate Prediction Project.   

This talk will review major DCV phenomena, their most likely mechanisms including influences of solar variability and low-latitude volcanic eruptions, potential and actual predictabilities of these phenomena, and experimental predictions of these phenomena and their societal impacts (Mehta, 2020). The talk will end with an overview of DCV impacts on China and other countries.    

3.TIME

November 26th, 9:30

4.LOCATION

Room A407, Ocean Science and Technology Building, Laoshan Campus

5.SPEAKER

Vikram M. Mehta

6.SPEAKER’s INTRODUCTION

Vikram Madhuvadan Mehta, Ph.D., 

Executive Director, The Center for Research on the Changing Earth System (CRCES)

Educational Qualifications

Ph.D.; Meteorology; Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida, U.S.A.; 1990

M.S.; Meteorology; Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida, U.S.A.; 1986 

Graduate Diploma; Physics; University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada; 1984

Graduate Diploma; Space Sciences and Their Applications; Gujarat University, Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India; 1978

M.Sc.; Physics; Gujarat University, Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India; 1977 

B.Sc.; Physics; Gujarat University, Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India; 1974

Research Interests

Assessment and prediction of decadal climate variability and its societal impacts on water, food, energy, and public health.

Formulation of climate adaptation options for stakeholders and policymakers in water, food, energy, and public health sectors.

Development of methods and models for generating climate and impacts information for public- and private-sector policymaking.

Analysis and modeling of decadal-multidecadal climate variability and its predictability.